Elon Musk says AI could surpass all human intelligence within five years

Elon Musk has predicted that artificial intelligence could exceed the sum of all human intelligence within approximately five years, describing the development as inevitable and saying he sees no meaningful way to stop it.

Musk made the remarks in an interview with The Economist published on Thursday, offering one of his most direct public statements yet on the timeline for AI surpassing human capability across every domain.

He said the most likely outcome of this transition is not catastrophe but abundance, resulting in a world where virtually any material needs can be met.

What Elon Musk is saying

Musk said AI’s trajectory is now beyond the control of any individual, and that even if he wanted to stop it, he wouldn’t be able to. He explained that his own philosophy has shifted from concern to acceptance.

• “I think AI may exceed the sum of human intelligence in around five years. There really won’t be anything that AI can’t do better than humans, apart from being human, perhaps,” he told The Economist.
• “The most likely outcome is an age of amazing abundance, where anyone can have anything they can think of. This may sound preposterous, but here we are in 2026, let’s see where we stand in 2036,” he said.

Asked if he still believes there is a 10 to 20% chance of AI leading to the destruction of humanity, Musk said the risk had not disappeared but that his response to it had changed.

• “I still think there’s risk associated with AI and robots. It’s not zero. I guess I’ve come to my philosophical conclusion to look on the bright side. I can’t see any way to really stop this incredible momentum of AI and robots,” he said.
• “Let’s enjoy the ride is my philosophy at this point, because there seems to be just an inexorable progress here in AI and in robots that even if I wanted to stop it, I don’t, I couldn’t,” he added.

More insights

Musk said his recommendation was for leading AI companies to hold a weekly or bi-weekly call to discuss safety and security issues, with competitors given one to two weeks of early access to review new models before release.

• “The competitors can keep each other honest,” he said, arguing that rival companies are better positioned than governments to assess whether a model poses a genuine security risk.

He said the framework should be put in place immediately, describing six months as “a long time” given the pace of AI development.

• “There are so many AI breakthrough announcements, sometimes multiple per day,” he said.

Not everyone agrees with Elon Musk

Musk’s prediction that artificial intelligence could exceed the combined intelligence of humans within five years has drawn skepticism from an industry expert, who argued that current AI development still falls short of fully understanding or replicating the complexity of human intelligence.

Speaking to Nairametrics on Friday, Jephte Ioudom, founder of FoubsLabs, a data analytics and software engineering consultancy, said while AI is likely to achieve significant breakthroughs in the coming years, surpassing human intelligence remains an overstatement.

• “I do believe AI will do amazing things in the next five years and help handle a lot of things humans can do, but I still do not think AI will surpass human intelligence because the human brain is complex and no human brain is the same,” Ioudom said.

He argued that claims of AI exceeding the intelligence of all humans underestimate the complexity and diversity of human cognitive abilities.

• “To say AI will be able to surpass the multitude of human brains and intelligence we have across the world, to me, is an overstretch,” he added.

While disagreeing with Musk’s timeline, Ioudom said he expects AI to become increasingly integrated into different sectors over the next five years, improving how humans work and make decisions.

What you should know

The debate over the future capabilities and risks of artificial intelligence comes as policymakers around the world are increasingly exploring measures to manage the potential harms associated with advanced AI systems.

• In the United States, two lawmakers from opposing parties have introduced legislation that would give the federal government powers to shut down AI tools considered a threat to public safety.

The proposed AI Kill Switch Act follows recent concerns over AI models exhibiting unexpected behaviour, including OpenAI’s disclosure that its models autonomously exploited vulnerabilities during a cybersecurity evaluation.