US demand for Nigerian goods drops N365.6 billion as trade deficit widens

Nigeria’s exports to the United States fell by N365.64 billion in the first quarter of 2026, even as imports from the world’s largest economy almost doubled, pushing the country’s bilateral trade deficit with the US to about N1.63 trillion.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics’ Q1 2026 Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics report, Nigeria exported goods worth N1.18 trillion to the US during the quarter, down 23.69% from N1.54 trillion recorded in the corresponding period of 2025.

Meanwhile, imports from the US surged 97.33% year-on-year to N2.81 trillion from N1.42 trillion, marking one of the fastest increases among Nigeria’s major trading partners.

What the data shows

The figures indicate that Nigeria’s trade position with the US deteriorated sharply. While the country recorded a trade surplus of about N122 billion with the US in the first quarter of 2025, it swung to a deficit of approximately N1.63 trillion a year later as import growth significantly outpaced export earnings.

• The NBS data showed Nigeria imported N2.81 trillion worth of goods from the United States in Q1 2026, an increase of N1.38 trillion compared to the same period last year. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, imports also rose by 74.14% from N1.61 trillion recorded in Q4 2025.
• The increase made the US Nigeria’s second-largest source of imports after China. American goods accounted for 20.6% of Nigeria’s total imports during the quarter, while China retained the top position with a 37.42% share.

The surge is particularly significant because it came during a period when Nigeria’s overall imports declined. Total imports into the country fell 18.17% year-on-year to N13.62 trillion, suggesting demand for US products remained resilient despite weaker aggregate import spending.

US slips as export market despite quarterly rebound

On the export side, Nigeria’s sales to the US weakened considerably compared to a year earlier.

• Exports fell by N365.64 billion to N1.18 trillion in Q1 2026 from N1.54 trillion in Q1 2025, representing a 23.69% decline.
• Although exports recovered by 31.6% from N895.06 billion recorded in Q4 2025, the rebound was insufficient to offset the annual decline, pointing to weaker US demand for Nigerian goods relative to last year.
• Despite the drop, the United States remained Nigeria’s fifth-largest export destination during the quarter, accounting for 5.56% of total exports. India remained Nigeria’s biggest export market, followed by France, the Netherlands and Spain.

Overall bilateral trade between Nigeria and the US reached N3.98 trillion during the quarter, highlighting the importance of the trade relationship even as the imbalance widened.

What you should know

These trade outcomes unfolded amid protectionist rhetoric and tariff-focused policies under US President Donald Trump, which have influenced sourcing decisions and global trade flows.

• While the trade data do not directly attribute Nigeria’s figures to tariffs, the deficit coincided with Washington’s implementation of a “reciprocal” tariff regime that raised Nigeria’s tariff rate from 14% to 15%.
• The executive order, signed in late July and effective from August 7, 2025, applies to a wide range of non-oil Nigerian exports, even as crude oil has been largely exempted.
• The higher duty has introduced uncertainty for American importers and appears to have dampened demand for Nigerian goods, reinforcing the import decline that underpinned the US surplus.

Afrieximbank Research had stated that President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs might have a limited direct impact on African economies, given the continent’s deepening trade ties with China.

The organisation, in its analysis of the tariff issue, noted that recent trade data had revealed a major shift in Africa’s global economic alliances, with China surpassing the United States as the continent’s leading trading partner.

The Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Mrs. Jumoke Oduwole, also said that Nigeria is not worried by the policies of President Donald Trump of the United States of America.

Nairametrics recently reported that the United States government opened a trade investigation into Nigeria and 59 other economies over concerns that their trade practices may allow the importation of goods produced with forced labour.